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Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Corner football betting is a popular market for the experienced punter with an eye for patterns and game reactions. The basics are simple if not obvious, favorites that find themselves unexpectedly losing by one goal will act in a desperate manner to regain control of the score. This scenario usually leads to several factors that favor a high generation of corner kicks. The following reveals the basics but also two step by step techniques that are effective is applied with discipline and precision. While one seeks value going against the popular selections, Greg Gordon, a pro bettor that provides consultancy for bookmakers, teaches his own personal approach.
What Do the Numbers Say
Pinnacle Sports does a good job in scraping the numbers behind corners, these are the main data facts behind corner kicks:
Teams win more corners when they lose against similar opponents in strength.
Super favorites win an average of 6 corners when they win, and 8 when they lose.
If favorites spend most of the time attacking but fail to score, they gain a large number of corners.
Corners have a higher chance of being successfully defended by the concessions another corner.
Formula to determine number of corner won by a side:
Proportion of Corners=0.1818+(0.6365*P)
So if a game is expected to have an average of 2.6 goals and the favorite should score 2 of those goals, or 0.77 in proportion, that team should win 67% of the corners awarded throughout the game.
Corner Football Betting Tips
Both strategy, tempo and game pressure influence in great deal the amount of corner kicks that can occur during a match. The question is, should we favor pre-match or in-play corner football betting?
Pre-Match Bets
The real pro´s prefer to stick with in-plays, but pre-match bets provide odds as high as 2/1 for corner bets while in-play markets rarely surpass evens. The difficulty with pre-match is guessing the tempo and pressure in the game; but a quick look at common playing tactics, attacker playing style and the pressure to win the match due to the proximity of championship definition, can suggest if the amount of corners is going to be over or under for a certain team or overall.
Tip: Keep the odds well over evens with pre-match corner bets.
Corners + Cards
This strategy increases the paying odds substantially, bookmakers will offer around 4/1 on over/under corners and over/under cards.
Time of Corner Market
Odds can be as high as 5/1 when defining if a team will win corners in between 10 – 15 minute blocks. A very difficult prediction for pre-match, but if punters follow a particular team for the entire season and identify a pattern in their gaming style, the odds look very provoking.
Tip: Focus on fast starters.
Pressure Points Corner Betting Strategy
Take the Over in-play when the pressure to win is high (championship title, qualifier points etc.) and the losing side is controlling the ball with 1 goal against and less than 15 minutes till the end.
What changes here is the losing side has to risk everything to score in so little time. Corners will occur more frequently as all approximations to the rival´s goal will result in quick but poor guided shots that are deflected. At this point the winning side is holding down tired and nervous which results in most of those deflections ending as corner kicks and not controlled take overs.
Tip: This is the most used tactic in corner betting for In-play bettors.
Staking the Corner Under Strategy
In-play will always be the preferred betting market for the highly experienced and involved bettor.
But it isn´t either simple or as rewarding with odds that tend to be under evens most of the time.
The strategy looks easy, watch the game until the pressure is on to deliver results, like the favorite side losing to one goal with the first or second half near its end. This will almost always result in the losing side to attack more aggressively while opening more the defense; and the winning side to pull-back and hole down to prepare for the avalanche of attacks that will have to rely on long distance shots.
This scenario is the perfect mix for a great deal of corner kicks, but the astute and experienced will avoid staking an Over at this point. The odds will be unfavorable as the bookie lowers the price for the corner Overs, and usually after 5 to 10 minutes of aggressive play both sides tend to play a more secure style, focusing on controlling the ball and waiting for mistakes to spring into action.
Tip: Taking the in-play corner Under when the match is 0 – 1 against the favorite is a value betting tactic that should offer well above even odds and some logic behind it. Chances are the over score is on target, but an early equalizer can change the game scenario completely.
Greg Gordon´s Corner Betting Strategy, a Bookie Consultant
For those hunting personal experience tips the best has to come from Greg Gordon. Gordon is a journalist that has written for the Financial Times, Sunday Times, The Observer amongst many others. His journalistic career and personal relationship with a Scottish club led him to specialize in “Next Opponent Reports”, which are tactical analyses about rival teams. He also conducts player scouting and football betting consultancy for bookmakers and private clients.
Greg revealed on Quora his personal inplay corner betting strategy:
“One of my favorite in play betting strategies is to bet on a high number of corners in play when the prematch favorite is actively chasing an equalizer in the game.” - Greg Gordon
In order to stake the inplay the following conditions have to be met:
1. A high pace to the game with the ball switching wide.
2. Attackers receiving the ball near the byline instead of trying to cut inside.
3. Attack from the losing side (favorites) is quick passing and furious against a parked defense that references to the man.
4. Noisy crowd near the pitch rather than behind a running track (obviously this points to top
European leagues like the EPL and Spanish League).
When to Stake: Around 55-60 minute mark. But if a goal occurs way before the bet conditions are reached, reappraise the position or bailout. Goals tend to instantly change the tempo and style of the game.
The conditions in general for a corner betting strategy are very much the same. The strategy difference will vary depending on the staking method.
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- Value bet
This is actually the best of all the strategies. Betting on value in soccer entails surfing through the web to see the size of the odds that bookmakers allotted to teams for different markets. When you do this, you concentrate on the teams that the bookmaker has undervalued and bet heavily on those. You may not be looking to wager on the results of the game, you are simply trying to get the best off the bookmaker’s mistakes, and it works. Ascertain the real percentage that the booker is allotting to the team to come up with a particular result. Do your own research on the teams and see the real percentage they should get. If after your homework on their history, form, records, player availability and injury, you discover that their probability of achieving the result is higher, capitalize on that and wager.
- Not to lose bet
Another strategy that many punters use to come up with successful bets is by taking the more probable side. Forget about the winning and losing bets and bet on a team not to lose. Your team doesn’t have to lose and they do not have to win for you to make money. This is regarded as double chance by many bookmakers. You are betting on one of two different outcomes to happen. This may come with reduced odds or prize money. It is easy for you to know when 1 or both of the teams will play for a draw, or when the players that score the goals are not available.
- Goals
Another betting strategy that works in soccer is to jettison other things and focus on goals. This pays more than many other markets because it is a bit reliable when you know how to work it out. There are teams that are known to be high scoring in nature. These teams should be backed to score goals. In soccer, most of the elite teams with very prolific strikers are the best for these bets. You can also make this more certain by placing this bet when these high scoring teams are playing against teams that are weak. The best way to go about it is to increase the money you are staking so that whatever happens, you will gain good money.
- Draw bets
Many people run away from draws because it seldom happens. But there is a method of arriving at teams that will draw. Forget about score draws because it is difficult to predict. Search for those teams that find it very difficult to score each other. Pick two teams with powerful defense line or two teams with very weak attack line. In this case, the draw is a very feasible and workable strategy.
Which ever one of the strategies you decide to bet with, just make sure you can analyze and forecast the outcome of the game and you are sure on the path to great wins.
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